ny lotto

by **LeVar Burton** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 3:30 pm

You can call buying multiple tickets stacking the odds or whatever you like, but having these "stacked odds" would result in an increased probability of winning.

As for the lightning comparison, it doesn't hold because you can take physical measures to increase your chances of being struck. Numbers that are drawn at random are different however. The probability that they use when referring to lightning strikes is simply calculated by the number of people who have been struck. Some of these people may have even tried to get struck, who knows? But they're still considered in the calculation.

by **Evan** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 3:30 pm

Actually, Jimmy and Levar are BOTH right. Look at it this way:

Jimmy's saying that more than one ticket doesn't equal a greater chance at winning the lottery. That's true, because EACH TICKET has the same chance as the other one.

Levar is right in the sense that if you have 2 tickets in your posession, YOU have a greater chance of winning than someone that has one. That's true too, but even with 1 or 100 tickets - you're most likely not going to win.

by **LeVar Burton** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 3:33 pm

Thats not what they meant though... as evident when they claim there is NO PURPOSE in buying two tickets. He tried to back this statement up by referring to independant trials, but I completely understand where that applies. Its not like I was arguing that the second ticket has a greater chance of winning itself.

With that I'm done with this thread. Please don't bring me back in.

by **Evan** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 3:36 pm

Originally posted by LeVar Burton
Thats not what they meant though... as evident when they claim there is NO PURPOSE in buying two tickets. He tried to back this statement up by referring to independant trials, but I completely understand where that applies. Its not like I was arguing that the second ticket has a greater chance of winning itself.

With that I'm done with this thread. Please don't bring me back in.

You're both still right.

I believe Jimmy's looking at it as individual tickets and you're looking at it as in the persons who have more than one.

Also look at it this way too. Technically you both have the same odds no matter how many tickets you have (unless you have ALL possible tickets). Why? Try this..

You have 10 million people that play. You have 3 tickets, everyone else has 1. You still are 1 out of 10 million. So you have a 1 in 10 million chance of winning.

by **LeVar Burton** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 3:46 pm

I absolutely cannot believe this. "Unless you have all the possible tickets?" What if you had all of them -1... or -2... or -500? Are your odds not better? As for your 1 in 10,000,000 idea... this blows my mind... assuming that all 10,000,000 but you have ONE ticket and you have three, then its actually 10,000,002... and you have 3/10,000,002. Furthermore, theres no guarantee of a winner EVER. So its never 1 in 10,000,000 always wins.

And what other way of looking at it is there? Multiple tickets mean better odds. An additional ticket has the same odds as the first one? No shit! But if thats your reasoning for not buying two, then why buy even one?

Ok, whos going to question this again... Jesus.

by **Colonel Ingus** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 3:47 pm

Dead on Evan.

I never said there is no purpose to buying more than one ticket. Just that you don't get improved odds of winning. You now have two 1 in 81 million chances to win. Not a 2 in 81 million chance and certainly nothing as idiotic as now having a 1 in 40.5 million chance.

With multiple tickets you now have a greater statistical probability of being a winner but each attempt it is still at 1 to 81 million.

So in that essence I am correct an will not admit error.

LeVar does have a good point but its apple and oranges with what I was talking about.

Everytime you flip that coin its a 50-50 chance on heads or tails. The greater amount of flips increases the chance that you will receive the flip you desire, but it will still be 50-50 per flip.

I'm talking the 50-50 chance and hes talking greater amount of flips.

by **LeVar Burton** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 4:07 pm

2 in 81 million is the same as 1 in 40.5 million FYI.

Sorry I grouped you in there with Jimmy, I thought you said theres no point. I never claimed that it increased your odds to 2 out of 81 million, thats why I used the example of flipping a coin twice doesn't give 2/2 odds or 100%, but it does give 75% odds: 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 chance of getting tails twice, which means that in all other scenarios heads showed at least once.

by **Mr. Slayer** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 4:09 pm

Omg this thread gives me a headache.....

by **Colonel Ingus** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 4:25 pm

Sorry LeVar you are correct in the 2 in 81 = 1 in 40.5. I meant to state that it doesn't cut your odds in half. Bad analogy on my part.

And Slayer says:

Stop the Math Madness!

Maybe this will make him feel better.

:badger:

by **Pierce** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 6:07 pm

Omg this thread gives me a headache.....

Yeah...I was never one for math and probability so this all hurts my brain.

by **Ralph Wiggum** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:21 am

As a former math whiz, I can't even read all this nonsense. Two scenarios:

No. 1

Any one combination of numbers has a 1/x chance of winning the lottery. If I own one ticket, my numbers have a 1/x chance of winning the lottery.

No. 2

Same as above, any one combination of numbers has a 1/x chance of winning the lottery. But suppose I own 2 tickets with two difference combinations of numbers, then I have a 2/x chance of winning.

There is no two ways about this discussion. The only ways the odds are the same is if the numbers are the same on all your tickets. If you buy multiple tickets with the same numbers, you are only slightly dumber than people who argue that having multiple tickets doesn't increase the odds of your winning (again, with different numbers if you didn't have sense to assume that as part of the discussion).

Sorry to call people out on this, but this is math for Christ's sake: there are right and wrong answers.

***

Edit:

I assume I don't have to prove that 2/x is greater than 1/x, but I suppose I can if needed.

by **Ralph Wiggum** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:50 am

If you want an f'd up statistics problem, here it is. I have excerpted the description of the problem from another site.

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is the Grand Prize; behind the others, Booby Prizes. You pick a door, say Door A, and the host, who knows what is behind each door, opens another door, say Door B, revealing a Booby Prize. The host then offers you the opportunity to change your selection to Door C. Should you stick with your original choice or switch? Does it make any difference? (This is similar to the routine on the TV game show Let's Make a Deal, hosted by Monty Hall, hence the name of the problem.)

Assuming that the host always chooses to open a door with a Booby Prize, and would never reveal the Grand Prize, what should you do: switch or stick with the door you picked initially?

by **LordShard** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 7:29 am

If 2 doors have booby prizes you already had one revealed. Worst xcase is you get anouther booby prize if you stick with your 1st pick but you have a 50-50 chance of getting the grand prize right?

If you decide to take the booby prize he opened you have 0 chance for the grand prize.

by **Jim0322** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 7:54 am

It does not matter. There is a 50/50 chance whether you stick with the original choice or select the other hidden option.

by **CodeRed68** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 8:11 am

I agree with Wiggum and Levar on this.
With the lottery you are trying to match a combination of numbers vs. the numbers drawn. The reasoning is that the more combinations you have in your hand, the greater your chances of matching the numbers drawn in the lottery.
It's not a chance by chance single hand coin flipping isolated thing errrrrr :/ .....

by the way, i am in with people at work. 5 bucks a piece and we have over 200 tickets now. What are my chances??

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